Three days in a row, the Israeli side of the Israeli-Syrian border has been attacked by Syrian forces. Reports indicate that the attacks have been launched by regular Syrian troops – not by rebels or the terrorists who have attached themselves to the rebels (and, at this point, those two things may be indistinguishable from each other). The Syrians claimed earlier this week that they had destroyed an Israeli vehicle that crossed the border and had killed “everyone in it.” The Israelis explained that an IDF vehicle on the Israeli side of the Golan had been shot at and had returned fire. Chalk up another transparent, silly lie for the Syrian regime.

With his country in chaos and rebel/terrorist forces eating the organs of his soldiers, why would Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad pick a fight with the most powerful military in the region? The answer depends on whether or not he is doing anything of the sort.

Assad’s regime has been the victim of some high-profile defections and desertions. No one knows the extent of the control he has over his commanders. At every level of Syrian society, hatred of the Jewish state runs deep, so it’s entirely possible that a Syrian officer on the Israeli border has decided to fire at Israel without the knowledge or permission of the regime. (Or, at least, that that’s how it started a few days ago and now, loathe to be seen as less willing to attack Israel than one of his commanders, Assad is – to coin a phrase – leading from behind).

The other possibility is that Assad wants to pick a fight with Israel knowing that Israel isn’t the least bit interested in a prolonged conflict with Syria, that the U.N. and others will try to keep the muzzle on any Israeli response, and that attacking Israel is a sure way to get good press and street cred in the Arab and Muslim world. Even if Israel hits back, there’s a lot of upside for Assad and relatively little downside – assuming Israel’s…